Bitcoin has at least four opportunities for correction


  • Bitcoin has been correcting since 2017

  • The low reached in December 2018 at $ 3122 may be in between

  • Correction may continue up to $ 2200

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Bitcoin has been falling since it surged to a high of $ 19,798 on December 17, 2017. Although it hit a temporary bottom at $ 3122 on December 15, 2018, it is not clear if this was the low that marked the start of the next market cycle, or if the price will go even lower..

Bitcoin: The long-awaited correction

Renowned trader and analyst @ Mesawine1 did a good job describing the various opportunities for the current correction. The tweet has counted the number of waves since its all-time high in December 2017. Particular attention is paid to the interval from the December 2017 high to the December 2018 low. There are four possibilities for correction, he said..

$ btc #elliottwave macro count:

Here are my 4 macro counts with the assumption that the first move down to $ 3100 is an ABC

I’m not gonna lie. The macro count is tricky. With every count there are some iffy sections. What are your thoughts?

Check it out! #Btc #bitcoin #crypto

– Cryptotoad (@ Mesawine1) March 30, 2020


Below we will look at each possibility and discuss the price dynamics that can confirm / deny each of them..

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Completion of the correction

The first possibility suggests that price has completed its correction, reaching the December 15, 2018 low of $ 3122. The movement that began then became the first wave of the five-wave Elliott pattern, and currently the price has reached the second wave, which is a corrective.

This is the most bullish scenario of the four. To realize this opportunity, the price must hold above the 200-week moving average (MA) and above the support level of $ 5200, which corresponds to the Fibonacci level of 0.786 throughout the entire upward movement. Although the price dropped below this level, it failed to close below it. Until this happens, this opportunity remains valid..

Bitcoin Chart, Trading View

Wave A of a wider correction A-B-C

The second possibility has more to do with a bearish trend and suggests that the price is now in wave C of a wider correction A-B-C.

Assuming that waves A and C are the same length, we can use the rate of fall from the top of wave A to the top of wave B and project it onto the bottom of wave A to find the bottom of wave C. This results in a minimum of $ 2,200..

If the waves are counted correctly, then we have now reached 4 waves within the correction, which consists of five sub-waves. The next wave 5 is likely to be fast and the price will drop to $ 2200.
This option will not be possible in the event of a daily close above the low of wave 1, which is marked in the image below with a red text “invalid”.

Bitcoin has at least four opportunities for correction

Bitcoin Chart, Trading View

Wave a of the great triangle

The third scenario assumes that the bitcoin price continues to correct, however, the correction occurs within a symmetrical triangle. The number of waves inside the triangle corresponds to the A-B-C-D-E pattern, with each low and high below the previous.


Thus, the 2018 low is the lowest price will reach during the correction. In this scenario, the bottom reached on March 13, 2020 was the end of wave C, while now the price is in wave D.

The correction is expected to complete by the end of the year, after which the price will move up again.

Bitcoin Chart, Trading View

Wave W correction W-X-Y

We discussed this scenario in detail in the previous article, so we will not dwell on it. Despite the different counting of waves, the minimum is in the same area as for the scenario with wave A within the A-B-C correction.

In conclusion, we note that the bitcoin rate is declining from the maximum reached on December 24, 2017 at $ 19,798. It is not yet completely clear which of the correction scenarios we are dealing with, however, you can simplify the forecast by applying upper and lower price limits that will help filter out inappropriate options as the situation develops.

A weekly close below SMA200 on the weekly chart will signal a decline to the $ 2200 area, while a weekly close above $ 8000 would mean that the price has already bottomed out..

In any case, at current levels we are much closer to the bottom than to the next top..


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Bitcoin has at least four opportunities for correction
Bitcoin has at least four opportunities for correction
Bitcoin has at least four opportunities for correction
Bitcoin has at least four opportunities for correction

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