Investors disagree on the future of the ruble
Market participants continue to discuss the prospects for the ruble for 2021
Citizens of the Russian Federation are looking for alternative options for investment
International consortium of news organizations developing transparency standards.
At the end of November 2020, a lot of publications appeared on the network with loud headlines about a possible fall in the ruble exchange rate. Against their background, Internet users began to actively discuss how to save their savings and where to invest money Investing is not always as difficult as it seems. Including, it is not easy to choose a cryptocurrency for investing funds – for … More.
The editors of BeInCrypto decided to figure out what would happen if the ruble fell, and what arguments were given in favor of such a scenario by market participants. The search for information will help find an alternative for investing the savings of Russians.
Will the ruble fall: we analyze the pros and cons
Unfortunately, the 30-ruble dollar remained only in the memory of Russians and on the charts younger than mid-2014. After the active growth of the American currency in 2015 and reaching a local maximum at 85 rubles, the asset rate went into a slight correction. Another peak in cost was registered in March 2020 – amid the first outbreaks of the coronavirus pandemic.
Dollar to ruble exchange rate. Source: Investing
Despite the fact that the dollar against the ruble is periodically declining, the overall dynamics remains positive. This is indicated by the growth of local minimums. At the same time, about 80% of Russian citizens still choose the national cryptocurrency of Russia for deposits. The head of Sberbank (formerly Sberbank), German Gref, spoke about this during his interview with Naila Asker-zade for the Vesti program of the Russia-1 TV channel..
Considering the price dynamics of the ruble, this strategy looks illogical, but there are reasons for it..
Arguments for the dollar’s fall
On the Internet, you can find a lot of materials, the authors of which are confident in the imminent fall in the rate of the American national currency, with a parallel strengthening of the ruble. Popular arguments in favor of this opinion include the following:
- Russia is able to win the race to produce a vaccine against coronavirus with proven effectiveness. In this case, the ruble may strengthen its position against the US dollar. At least, analysts of Moskovsky Komsomolets think so.
- The American currency is at risk of losing weight amid economic recovery and trade, in the event of an active spread of the coronavirus vaccine. Market participants who adhere to this position are confident that the dollar is overvalued today.
- The dollar is at risk of falling due to the quantitative easing policy followed by the Fed. In other words, the Central Bank prints new money and pours it into the financial system. An artificial increase in the volume of currency in the market, according to a number of analysts, may lead to its depreciation. In this case, other currencies, including the ruble, will be able to strengthen their positions in tandem with the dollar..
At the same time, the Fed does not consider the quantitative easing policy it has chosen to be dangerous for the US economy..
Arguments for the fall of the ruble
There are also several explanations for the negative forecasts for the ruble. Among them are the following:
- Many, including analysts at Bloomberg, see the ruble as a risky asset. During periods of destabilization of the financial market, such instruments are often disposed of. At the same time, to the question of when the ruble will fall, you can find a lot of options on the Internet. Some are confident that the process has already begun, while others believe that the crisis will break out in early 2021. There is no single version.
- Russia will come under pressure following the victory of Democrat Joe Biden in the 2020 US presidential election. Investments in the ruble, according to Bloomberg analysts, could be effective only if Trump wins.
Joe Biden has repeatedly announced his intention to “sort out” the influence of Russia on America and introduce new sanctions against the Russian Federation, thereby increasing pressure on the ruble.
“Vladimir Putin doesn’t want me to be president. He doesn’t want me to even become a candidate. If you are wondering why – yes, because I am the only person in this area who goes with him head to head ”- this is how Joe Biden sees the attitude of the Russian leader towards himself.
Vladimir Putin doesn’t want me to be President. He doesn’t want me to be our nominee. If you’re wondering why – it’s because I’m the only person in this field who’s ever gone toe-to-toe with him.
– Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) February 21, 2020
- Coronavirus has weakened the Russian economy, while the Russian government is often criticized for ineffective decisions that can also negatively affect the position of the ruble.
The version with the fall of the ruble, against the background of statistics and comparison of the indicators of the two countries’ economies, turned out to be more popular. Despite this, some experts argue that the overvalued dollar will fall to ₽45 as the global economy begins to recover from the coronavirus crisis. Supporters of this theory advise actively converting dollars into rubles..
Where to invest money in 2020, 2021
For many, investment is a way to preserve savings in times of financial market destabilization. There are various approaches, strategies and theories for choosing assets for investment. At the same time, it is impossible to single out the only correct answer to the question of where to invest 1000 rubles.
For a long period of time, one of the most popular assets to invest during periods of financial market disruption was gold. Over time, other instruments began to appear on the market. Including cryptocurrencies.
The 2020 crisis showed that many investors began to often choose bitcoin (BTC) as an alternative to gold – with its help market participants began to hedge risks. Among the reasons are high rates of return on digital assets and prospects for further growth..
Young people are particularly interested in Bitcoin, according to JPMorgan. Older people still choose gold a lot, according to the study. JPMorgan analysts are confident that both assets have growth prospects. At the same time, it was Bitcoin that surpassed other instruments in terms of profitability for 9 out of 11 recent years..
Comparison of profit from various assets by year
According to members of the crypto community, in 2020 Bitcoin was supported by the launch of cryptocurrency services in the PayPal payment system. Positive decisions of large companies to work with a new financial instrument can contribute to its adaptation in the world. The changes can positively affect the value of bitcoin. Therefore, many investors believe that buying BTC can be profitable..
Find out where you can buy bitcoin profitably from our material.
We will remind, earlier analysts shared with BeInCrypto their opinion on what will happen to cryptocurrency in 2020-2021.
All information contained on our website is published in good faith and objectivity, and for informational purposes only. The reader is solely responsible for any actions he takes based on the information received on our website..
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